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Carbon prospecting in tropical forests for climate change mitigation
Lian Pin Koh1, Yiwen Zeng2, Tasya Vadya Sarira3,4
1Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions, and Department of Biological Sciences, National University of Singapore, 14 Science Drive 4, Singapore, 117543, Singapore. lianpinkoh@nus.edu.sg.
Nature Communications
|February 25, 2021
Summary
Tropical forest carbon finance can generate significant investment, but most sites remain unviable. Additional conservation efforts are crucial for protecting carbon stocks and biodiversity.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Climate Science
- Conservation Biology
Background:
- Global demand for nature-based carbon credits exceeds supply.
- Knowledge gaps hinder investment decisions in tropical forest conservation.
- Carbon finance offers a potential mechanism for climate change mitigation and biodiversity protection.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess the global potential for investable carbon from tropical forest protection.
- To evaluate the financial viability and return on investment for carbon projects.
- To identify the proportion of forest carbon sites that are financially unviable.
Main Methods:
- Global analysis of tropical forest carbon stocks and protection potential.
- Economic modeling of carbon project financial viability and return on investment.
- Assessment of current carbon market prices and their impact on project feasibility.
Main Results:
- Tropical forest protection can generate 1.8 (±1.1) GtCO2e yr−1 of investable carbon globally.
- Financially viable projects could yield $46.0 billion yr−1 in net present value.
- ~80% of forest carbon sites are financially unviable at current market prices.
Conclusions:
- Carbon finance alone is insufficient to ensure the financial viability of most tropical forest protection projects.
- Increased carbon prices or supplementary conservation interventions are necessary.
- Protecting vulnerable forests requires a combination of carbon finance and other conservation strategies to safeguard carbon stocks and biodiversity.
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