ESTIMATING THE ECONOMIC IMPACTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE ON 16 MAJOR US FISHERIES

Area of Science:

• Marine Biology
• Climate Change Economics
• Fisheries Management

Background:

• Ocean warming is causing marine species to alter their geographic distributions.
• These shifts pose significant challenges to the sustainability of US fisheries and the seafood industry.
• Understanding these impacts is crucial for economic and ecological resilience.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate the consumer welfare impacts of projected changes in US commercial fisheries landings.
• To analyze these impacts under both low and high greenhouse gas emissions scenarios.
• To quantify potential economic losses for consumers from 2021 to 2100.

Main Methods:

• A two-stage inverse demand model was utilized for the analysis.
• Projections were based on predicted changes in thermally available marine habitats.
• Consumer surplus impacts were calculated and discounted to present value.

Main Results:

• The study projects a net loss in consumer surplus, with present values of $2.1 billion (low emissions) and $4.2 billion (high emissions).
• Annual losses are estimated to reach $278–$901 million by the year 2100.
• Fisheries analyzed represent 56% of current US commercial fishing revenues.

Conclusions:

• Climate change-induced shifts in marine species distribution will lead to substantial economic losses for US seafood consumers.
• Mitigation efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions can significantly lessen these economic impacts.
• Policy interventions may be necessary to adapt to and mitigate these projected welfare losses.