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A Simulation Study of Coronavirus as an Epidemic Disease Using Agent-Based Modeling
Amal Adel Alzu'bi1, Sanaa Ibrahim Abu Alasal2, Valerie J M Watzlaf3
1(aazoubi9@just.edu.jo) is Assistant Professor, Department of Computer Information Systems, Jordan University of Science and Technology, in Irbid, Jordan.
Agent-based modeling simulates COVID-19 spread to assess preventative measures. This research highlights the impact of interventions like quarantines and social distancing on epidemic control.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Computational modeling
- Public health
Background:
- The emergence of novel coronavirus (COVID-19) in late 2019 posed significant global health and economic threats.
- Simulation systems offer a method to monitor and understand virus behavior.
- Agent-based modeling (ABM) is a key simulation technique for complex systems.
Purpose of the Study:
- To simulate the spread of COVID-19 within a defined population.
- To analyze the effectiveness of public health interventions in controlling epidemic spread.
- To understand the role of demographic and social factors in disease transmission.
Main Methods:
- Utilized agent-based modeling to represent a population with specific demographic and social characteristics.
- Simulated the transmission dynamics of COVID-19.
- Evaluated the impact of preventative strategies including quarantines, social distancing, and reduced public transport.
Main Results:
- The simulation demonstrated the potential of preventative techniques to suppress COVID-19 transmission.
- Quantified the effects of social distancing and quarantine measures on reducing epidemic spread.
- Highlighted the influence of population demographics and social networks on viral propagation.
Conclusions:
- Agent-based modeling is a valuable tool for public health professionals to study epidemic dynamics.
- Preventative measures like social distancing and quarantines are effective in mitigating the spread of infectious diseases.
- Understanding population structure is crucial for designing targeted public health interventions.
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