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Social Security area population projections: 1987.

A H Wade1

  • 1Office of the Actuary, Social Security Administration.

Social Security Bulletin
|February 1, 1988
PubMed
Summary

This actuarial study details population projections for the Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program. Three alternative projections were developed using different assumptions on immigration, birth, and death rates for long-range cost estimates.

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Area of Science:

  • Demography
  • Actuarial Science
  • Social Insurance

Background:

  • The Old-Age, Survivors, and Disability Insurance (OASDI) program requires long-range cost estimates.
  • These estimates are informed by population projections.
  • The 1987 Report of the OASDI Board of Trustees includes these projections.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To describe the population projections underpinning the OASDI program's long-range cost estimates.
  • To present three distinct projection scenarios (Alternatives I, II, III).

Main Methods:

  • Utilized historical data analysis.
  • Developed projections based on assumptions of future net immigration, birth rates, and death rates.
  • Started projections from recent estimates of population by age, sex, and marital status, and existing marriages by spousal age.

Main Results:

  • Generated three separate population projection alternatives (I, II, III).
  • These projections provide a basis for OASDI long-range cost estimations.
  • The methodology accounts for demographic variables like age, sex, marital status, and vital rates.

Conclusions:

  • The described population projections are crucial for understanding the future financial landscape of the OASDI program.
  • The use of multiple projection alternatives allows for scenario planning and risk assessment.
  • These projections serve as a foundational element for the 1987 OASDI Trustees Report.

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