Predictive value of resting electrocardiograms for 12-year incidence of stroke in the Honolulu Heart Program

The importance of electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities at baseline examination for subsequent risk of stroke was analyzed in a 12-year follow-up of 7,560 men in the Honolulu Heart Program, aged 45-68 years, who were free of coronary heart disease and stroke at baseline. Age-adjusted univariate analysis showed that men with major ST depression, left ventricular strain, left ventricular hypertrophy, major T wave inversion, and overall major ECG abnormalities had considerably higher (2.5-5.4 times) incidence rates of both thromboembolic and hemorrhagic stroke than those with normal baseline ECG. When blood pressure, age, cigarette smoking, alcohol consumption, fat intake, serum glucose concentration, serum uric acid concentration, years of education, and years lived in Japan were taken into consideration through multivariate analysis, the ECG abnormalities retained a significant relation with stroke. Our study demonstrates that resting ECG abnormalities are independent predictors of both thromboembolic and hemorrhagic stroke.