Retail store customer flow and COVID-19 transmission

Area of Science:

• Epidemiology
• Retail Operations Management
• Public Health

Background:

• Understanding COVID-19 transmission dynamics in public spaces like retail stores is crucial.
• Operational changes in customer flow can influence disease spread.
• Two primary transmission modes are direct proximity and airborne (wake) exposure.

Purpose of the Study:

• To analyze the impact of operational changes in retail customer flow on COVID-19 transmission rates.
• To evaluate the effectiveness of different interventions based on dominant transmission modes.
• To assess the trade-off between customer throughput and infection risk.

Main Methods:

• Combined a customer movement model with direct and wake exposure disease transmission models.
• Simulated various operational interventions, including one-way flow, reduced speed variance, and throughput control.
• Analyzed intervention effectiveness under different transmission dominance scenarios.

Main Results:

• One-way customer flow significantly reduces direct transmission but is ineffective against wake exposure.
• Reducing customer speed variance and controlling throughput are effective regardless of dominant transmission mode.
• Optimal customer throughput decreases sharply with rising population prevalence.

Conclusions:

• The efficacy of retail operational interventions for COVID-19 control is contingent on the primary transmission pathway.
• A combination of strategies, including flow management and throughput control, may be necessary for comprehensive risk reduction.
• Public health interventions must consider environmental factors and disease characteristics for optimal effectiveness.