Predicting the current and future potential spatial distribution of endangered Rucervus eldii eldii (Sangai) using
Vicky Anand1, Bakimchandra Oinam2, Irom Hamilton Singh2
1Department of Civil Engineering, National Institute of Technology Manipur, Imphal, India, 795004. vicky.einstein@gmail.com.
Environmental Monitoring and Assessment
|February 27, 2021
Summary
Climate change impacts species distribution. This study used MaxEnt modeling to predict habitat suitability for Rucervus eldii eldii in Keibul Lamjao National Park, revealing future habitat loss under climate change scenarios.
Area of Science:
- Ecological modeling
- Climate change impact assessment
- Biodiversity conservation
Background:
- Climate change significantly alters ecological factors controlling species distribution across spatiotemporal scales.
- Geographical Information System (GIS) and remote sensing are crucial tools for wildlife and habitat suitability modeling.
- Understanding habitat dynamics is essential for species conservation efforts.
Purpose of the Study:
- To map and predict the current and future habitat suitability for Rucervus eldii eldii (Sangai) in Keibul Lamjao National Park (KLNP).
- To assess the impact of climate change on the habitat of Rucervus eldii eldii using Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios.
- To identify key environmental variables influencing habitat suitability for the species.
Main Methods:
- Utilized MaxEnt software for habitat suitability modeling.
- Incorporated species presence data, topographic factors, and bioclimatic variables as input.
- Employed RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5 scenarios for future projections (2050 and 2070).
Main Results:
- The MaxEnt model achieved an average AUC of 0.944, indicating high accuracy.
- Isothermality and precipitation in the wettest quarter were identified as the most significant predictive variables.
- Current analysis shows varying degrees of habitat potential, with significant areas under least to high potential.
- Future projections under both RCP scenarios indicate a decrease in high suitability areas and an increase in areas with no suitability.
Conclusions:
- The study highlights the vulnerability of Rucervus eldii eldii habitat to climate change.
- Conservation and management strategies are needed to mitigate projected habitat loss.
- The findings provide critical data for the protection of Rucervus eldii eldii in KLNP.
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