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Reacting to outbreaks at neighboring localities
Ceyhun Eksin1, Martial Ndeffo-Mbah2, Joshua S Weitz3
1Industrial and Systems Engineering Department, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA; Electrical and Computer Engineering Department, Texas A&M University, College Station, TX, USA.
Journal of Theoretical Biology
|February 27, 2021
Summary
Preparedness is key to controlling epidemic spread. This study shows that local health measures can limit outbreaks, especially when mobility is low, but their effectiveness decreases with high travel rates.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Mathematical Modeling
- Network Science
Background:
- Epidemics spread through interconnected populations.
- Contact rates influence disease transmission dynamics.
- Metapopulation models capture spatial disease spread.
Purpose of the Study:
- To analyze epidemic dynamics in a two-locality metapopulation model.
- To investigate the impact of reduced contact rates and inter-locality travel on disease spread.
- To determine the effectiveness of preparedness measures in mitigating outbreaks.
Main Methods:
- Modified susceptible-exposed-infected-recovered (SEIR) dynamics were employed.
- Contact reduction was modeled as a function of cumulative cases.
- Mathematical bounds were derived for outbreak sizes in origin and importing localities.
Main Results:
- A lower bound on outbreak size at the origin was established based on spread speed.
- An upper bound on outbreak size in the importing locality was determined by spread speed and preparedness.
- The benefit of preparedness diminishes significantly with high mobility rates.
Conclusions:
- Preparedness is crucial for limiting epidemic spread, particularly in low-mobility scenarios.
- Localities can mitigate outbreaks by responding to rising cases and neighboring severity.
- Interventions are most effective when implemented early as cases begin to rise.
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