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Resource requirements for reintroducing elective surgery during the COVID-19 pandemic: modelling study
A J Fowler1, T D Dobbs2,3, Y I Wan1
1William Harvey Research Institute, Queen Mary University of London, London, UK.
The British Journal of Surgery
|February 28, 2021
Summary
The COVID-19 pandemic caused significant surgical procedure cancellations, impacting millions of patients and incurring billions in costs. Reintroducing elective surgery requires substantial resources to address the growing surgical backlog.
Area of Science:
- Health Economics
- Surgical Outcomes
- Public Health Policy
Background:
- The COVID-19 pandemic necessitated the suspension of non-urgent surgical procedures.
- This led to a substantial backlog of elective surgeries and impacted healthcare systems globally.
Purpose of the Study:
- To model the number of surgical procedures cancelled due to COVID-19.
- To estimate the deficit in surgical procedures and the associated costs.
- To project the resources needed for the gradual reintroduction of elective surgery.
Main Methods:
- A modeling study utilizing Hospital Episode Statistics data from 2014-2019.
- Surgical procedures were categorized into four urgency classes.
- Estimates were generated for expected procedures, deficits, and costs, with gradual reintroduction of elective surgery from June 2020.
Main Results:
- An estimated 749,247 surgical procedures were cancelled by May 31, 2020.
- By February 28, 2021, approximately 2.3 million patients were projected to be awaiting surgery.
- The cost of delayed procedures was estimated at €5.3 billion, with an additional €526.8 million needed for safe surgical delivery.
Conclusions:
- The COVID-19 pandemic has significantly delayed elective surgery provision.
- These delays are associated with increased healthcare costs and a substantial surgical backlog.
- Addressing the backlog requires significant additional resources and strategic planning for surgical recovery.
