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Related Concept Videos

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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Nov 16, 2025

Exploring the Effects of Atmospheric Forcings on Evaporation: Experimental Integration of the Atmospheric Boundary Layer and Shallow Subsurface
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Challenges and outlook for convection-permitting climate modelling.

E J Kendon1, A F Prein2, C A Senior1

  • 1Met Office Hadley Centre, Exeter, UK.

Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences
|March 1, 2021
PubMed
Summary

Convection-permitting models (CPMs) offer improved climate projections at local scales, enhancing understanding of extreme weather. Future advancements will refine heavy rainfall predictions and incorporate more Earth system processes for better climate risk assessments.

Keywords:
climate changeconvection permittingextreme weatherregional climate modelling

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Area of Science:

  • Climate science
  • Atmospheric science
  • Hydrology

Background:

  • Climate projections at kilometre-scale grid spacing, known as convection-permitting models (CPMs), are increasingly accessible.
  • CPMs enhance the representation of land-surface characteristics and atmospheric processes like convection, crucial for local-scale climate understanding and extreme weather event prediction.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To highlight the advancements and challenges of convection-permitting models (CPMs) in climate projection.
  • To discuss the potential of CPMs in improving the understanding of short-duration precipitation extremes and flash flood risks.
  • To outline future research directions and expected progress in CPM development and application.

Main Methods:

  • Utilizing convection-permitting models (CPMs) with kilometre-scale grid spacing for climate projections.
  • Analyzing the representation of land-surface characteristics and atmospheric convection within CPMs.
  • Reviewing current challenges, including rainfall intensity, land-surface process representation, parametrization, boundary forcing, and ensemble costs.

Main Results:

  • CPMs provide a significant improvement in understanding local-scale climate changes and extreme weather events, particularly short-duration precipitation extremes.
  • Current CPMs face challenges such as overestimating heavy rainfall intensity and difficulties in representing land-surface processes and unresolved sub-kilometre scales.
  • Future developments include scale-aware schemes, improved land-surface flux modeling, and integrated ensemble approaches for more comprehensive uncertainty quantification.

Conclusions:

  • Convection-permitting models represent a major advance for local-scale climate change and extreme weather research, especially for precipitation extremes.
  • Ongoing research is addressing key limitations in CPMs, paving the way for more accurate and reliable climate projections.
  • Future large-domain CPM simulations, potentially coupled with other Earth system components, promise enhanced insights into local processes and remote climate connections.