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Updated: Nov 16, 2025

Watershed Planning within a Quantitative Scenario Analysis Framework
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Using high-resolution climate change information in water management: a decision-makers' perspective.

H G Orr1, M Ekström2, M B Charlton1

  • 1Environment Agency, Horizon House, Bristol, UK.

Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences
|March 1, 2021
PubMed
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New UK climate projections offer insights into extreme rainfall events for better water management and flood risk reduction. Enhanced data products are needed to support adaptation strategies and decision-making for climate resilience.

Keywords:
adaptationflood riskhigh-intensity rainfall

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Area of Science:

  • Climate science
  • Hydrology
  • Environmental management

Background:

  • The UK Climate Change Act mandates reporting on climate change risks and adaptation actions.
  • Water management relies on climate projection data to understand potential impacts.
  • Accurate rainfall data is crucial for assessing flood risks and drainage management.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To evaluate the utility of UKCP Local (2.2km) projections for water management.
  • To identify necessary derived products from climate projections for adaptation.
  • To inform future development of climate projection data and tools.

Main Methods:

  • Analysis of UKCP Local high-resolution climate model simulations.
  • Assessment of derived information needs for decision-makers.
  • Review of requirements for adaptation and flood risk management.

Main Results:

  • UKCP Local projections can resolve subdaily rainfall and inform extreme event analysis.
  • There is a need for bias-corrected datasets, uncertainty evaluation, and rainfall narratives.
  • Guidance is required for using derived products like flood maps and design storm profiles.

Conclusions:

  • Central government support is vital for providing updated climate impact information for flood risk management.
  • Future climate projection development requires earlier and focused collaboration with industry and end-users.
  • Improved climate data products are essential for effective adaptation to climate change impacts.