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Impact of control interventions on COVID-19 population dynamics in Malaysia: a mathematical study

Afeez Abidemi1,2, Zaitul Marlizawati Zainuddin3, Nur Arina Bazilah Aziz3

  • 1Department of Mathematical Sciences, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310 Johor Bahru, Johor Malaysia.

European Physical Journal Plus
|March 1, 2021
PubMed

Insights

A mathematical model shows that combining pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical strategies significantly reduces COVID-19 spread. This integrated approach, including personal protection and treatment, is most effective in controlling the disease dynamics in Malaysia.

Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Mathematical Biology
  • Public Health

Background:

  • The COVID-19 pandemic presents significant global health and economic challenges.
  • Despite control efforts, rising infection and death rates necessitate improved disease modeling.
  • Mathematical models are crucial for understanding transmission dynamics and evaluating control strategies.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To develop and apply a deterministic compartmental model for COVID-19 transmission in Malaysia.
  • To assess the impact of pharmaceutical (treatment) and non-pharmaceutical (personal protection, contact tracing, testing) interventions.
  • To identify optimal control strategies for reducing COVID-19 incidence and prevalence.

Main Methods:

  • Utilized daily COVID-19 case data from Malaysia (March-December 2020) for model parameterization.
  • Developed a deterministic compartmental mathematical model.
  • Estimated the basic reproduction number (R0).
  • Performed numerical simulations to evaluate various control strategy combinations.

Main Results:

  • Each analyzed control strategy individually reduced COVID-19 incidence and prevalence.
  • Combining pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical measures demonstrated the highest effectiveness in averting infections.
  • Personal protection, contact tracing, testing, and treatment therapies were all shown to impact disease spread.

Conclusions:

  • Mathematical modeling provides valuable insights into COVID-19 transmission and control.
  • Integrated strategies combining pharmaceutical and non-pharmaceutical interventions are most effective for disease control.
  • The study highlights the importance of a multi-faceted approach to managing the COVID-19 pandemic.

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