Improving Predictions of COVID-19 Preventive Behavior: Development of a Sequential Mediation Model

Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, social distancing, self-quarantining, wearing masks, and washing hands have become part of the new norm for many, but not all. It appears that such preventive measures are critical to "flattening the curve" of the spread of COVID-19. The public's adoption of such behaviors is an essential component in the battle against what has been referred to as the "invisible enemy."

The primary objective of this study was to develop a model for predicting COVID-19 preventive behaviors among US college students. The Health Belief Model has a long history of use and empirical support in predicting preventive health behaviors, but it is not without its purported shortcomings. This study identifies a more optimal and defensible combination of variables to explain preventive behaviors among college students. This segment of the US population is critical in helping slow the spread of COVID-19 because of the relative reluctance of college students to perform the needed behaviors given they do not feel susceptible to or fearful of COVID-19.

For this study, 415 US college students were surveyed via Qualtrics and asked to answer questions regarding their fear of COVID-19, information receptivity (seeking relevant information), perceived knowledge of the disease, self-efficacy, and performance of preventive behaviors. The PROCESS macro (Model 6) was used to test our conceptual model, including predictions involving sequential mediation.

Sequential mediation results show that fear of COVID-19 leads individuals to seek out information regarding the disease, which increases their perceived knowledge and fosters self-efficacy; this is key to driving preventive behaviors.

Self-imposed preventive measures can drastically impact the rate of infection among populations. Based on this study's newly created sequential mediation model, communication strategies for encouraging COVID-19 preventive behaviors are offered. It is clear that college students, and very possibly adults of all ages, must have a healthy fear of COVID-19 to set in motion a process where concerned individuals seek out COVID-19-related information, increasing their store of knowledge concerning the disease, their self-efficacy, and ultimately their likelihood of performing the needed preventive behaviors.