Optimal test-assisted quarantine strategies for COVID-19

To evaluate the effectiveness of SARS-CoV-2 testing on shortening the duration of quarantines for COVID-19 and to identify the most effective choices of testing schedules.

We performed extensive simulations to evaluate the performance of quarantine strategies when one or more SARS-CoV-2 tests were administered during the quarantine. Simulations were based on statistical models for the transmissibility and viral loads of SARS-CoV-2 infections and the sensitivities of available testing methods. Sensitivity analyses were performed to evaluate the impact of perturbations in model assumptions on the outcomes of optimal strategies.

We found that SARS-CoV-2 testing can effectively reduce the length of a quarantine without compromising safety. A single RT-PCR test performed before the end of quarantine can reduce quarantine duration to 10 days. Two tests can reduce the duration to 8 days, and three highly sensitive RT-PCR tests can justify a 6-day quarantine. More strategic testing schedules and longer quarantines are needed if tests are administered with less sensitive RT-PCR tests or antigen tests. Shorter quarantines can be utilized for applications that tolerate a residual post-quarantine transmission risk comparable to a 10-day quarantine.

Testing could substantially reduce the length of isolation, reducing the physical and mental stress caused by lengthy quarantines. With increasing capacity and lowered costs of SARS-CoV-2 tests, test-assisted quarantines could be safer and more cost-effective than 14-day quarantines and warrant more widespread use.

What is already known on this topic?: Recommendations for quarantining individuals who could have been infected with COVID-19 are based on limited evidence.Despite recent theoretical and case studies of test-assisted quarantines, there has been no substantive investigation to quantify the safety and efficacy of, nor an exhaustive search for, optimal test-assisted quarantine strategies.

Our simulations indicate that the 14-day quarantine approach is overly conservative and can be safely shortened if testing is performed.Our recommendations include testing schedules that could be immediately adopted and implemented as government and industry policies.

A major technology company asked that we perform simulations to understand the optimal strategy for managing personnel quarantining before forming cohorts of individuals who would work closely together. The funding entity did not influence the scope or output of the study but requested that we include antigen testing as a component of the quarantining process. Patrick Yu and Peter Matos are employees of Corporate Medical Advisors, and International S.O.S employs Julie McCashin. Other funding sources are research grants and did not influence the investigation.