Current Best Practice for Presenting Probabilities in Patient Decision Aids: Fundamental Principles

Area of Science:

• Health communication
• Risk perception
• Patient decision aids

Background:

• Shared decision-making necessitates clear, comparable evidence presentation for patients.
• Patient decision aids are crucial tools for facilitating this process.
• Effective communication of numerical probabilities is key within these aids.

Purpose of the Study:

• To review current evidence on presenting numerical probabilities in patient decision aids.
• To provide guidance for decision aid developers on risk communication.
• To identify best practices for enhancing patient understanding of health risks.

Main Methods:

• A systematic review following a 2013 methodology.
• Convened 9 international experts in risk communication.
• Literature review across expanded topics, with sections authored by experts and reviewed by the full team.

Main Results:

• Identified 10 topics, presenting 5 fundamental issues.
• Provided clear guidance on presenting event occurrence and addressing numerical skills.
• Recommended presenting risks over time with clear denominators, using consistent formats, and interpreting numbers for varying numeracy.

Conclusions:

• Understanding numerical format impact on risk perception aids balanced communication.
• Decisions on probability formats must consider evidence and user numeracy skills.
• Findings are applicable to broader science communication involving probability presentation.