Comparison of prognostic scores for alcoholic hepatitis: a retrospective study

To explore the prognostic value of modified Discriminant Function (mDF), Glasgow Alcoholic Hepatitis Score (GAHS), Model of End Stage Liver Disease (MELD), Age-Bilirubin-International Normalized Ratio-Creatinine score (ABIC), and the Lille Model for the 28- and 90-day mortality in patients with alcoholic hepatitis.

This retrospective study enrolled patients treated for alcoholic hepatitis in Dubrava University Hospital between January 2014 and May 2018. The diagnosis was established based on histology findings or the combination of patient´s history of ongoing alcohol consumption before hospitalization, serum bilirubin above 50 mmol/L, and aspartate transaminase to alanine transaminase ratio greater than 1.5. We calculated mDF, MELD, GAHS, and ABIC on the first and seventh day of hospitalization (including the Lille model).

In total, 70 patients were enrolled. ABIC at admission most accurately predicted the 28-day mortality, with a cut-off of 9.92 (AUC 0.727; 95% CI 0.608-0.827, P=0.0119), while GAHS most accurately predicted the 90-day mortality, calculated both at admission (cut off >7, AUC 0.765, 95% CI 0.639-0.864, P<0.0001) and after seven days of hospitalization (cut-off >8, AUC 0.835 95% CI 0.716-0.918, P<0.0001). Modified DF was able to predict the 28- and 90-day mortality only when calculated after seven days of hospitalization.

There is a need for better prognostic indicators for patients with AH.