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An R-Based Landscape Validation of a Competing Risk Model
Published on: September 16, 2022
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Comparing two predictive risk models for nematodirosis in Great Britain.
Aidan Hopkinson1, Hannah R Vineer1, Dave Armstrong2
1Institute of Infection, Veterinary and Ecological Sciences, Leahurst Campus, University of Liverpool, Liverpool, UK.
The Veterinary Record
|March 5, 2021
Summary
Forecasting Nematodirus battus hatch dates in lambs using temperature models is crucial for disease control. The air temperature model proved more accurate than the soil temperature model for predicting peak hatch across Great Britain.
Area of Science:
- Veterinary Parasitology
- Epidemiology
- Environmental Modeling
Background:
- Nematodirus battus infection poses a significant threat to lamb health.
- Larval development and pasture hatch are temperature-sensitive, necessitating predictive models for control.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate the accuracy of air and soil temperature models for predicting Nematodirus battus hatch dates.
- To determine the most suitable model for forecasting N. battus peak hatch in the UK.
Main Methods:
- Two risk models (air and 30 cm soil temperature) were employed to predict hatch dates.
- Model predictions were compared against observed N. battus egg detection dates on 18 sheep farms across Great Britain in 2019.
Main Results:
- The air temperature model demonstrated higher accuracy than the soil temperature model on 12 out of 18 farms.
- The air temperature model tended to predict later hatch dates early in the season.
Conclusions:
- The air temperature model is recommended for predicting N. battus peak hatch in the UK due to its accuracy and practicality.
- Potential adjustments to the air temperature model may be needed to address microclimatic variations.
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