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The Global Burden of Meningitis in Children: Challenges with Interpreting Global Health Estimates
Claire Wright1, Natacha Blake1, Linda Glennie1
1Meningitis Research Foundation, Bristol BS1 5HX, UK.
Abstract:
The World Health Organization (WHO) has developed a global roadmap to defeat meningitis by 2030. To advocate for and track progress of the roadmap, the burden of meningitis as a syndrome and by pathogen must be accurately defined. Three major global health models estimating meningitis mortality as a syndrome and/or by causative pathogen were identified and compared for the baseline year 2015. Two models, (1) the WHO and the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health's Maternal and Child Epidemiology Estimation (MCEE) group's Child Mortality Estimation (WHO-MCEE) and (2) the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD 2017), identified meningitis, encephalitis and neonatal sepsis, collectively, to be the second and third largest infectious killers of children under five years, respectively. Global meningitis/encephalitis and neonatal sepsis mortality estimates differed more substantially between models than mortality estimates for selected infectious causes of death and all causes of death combined. Estimates at national level and by pathogen also differed markedly between models. Aligning modelled estimates with additional data sources, such as national or sentinel surveillance, could more accurately define the global burden of meningitis and help track progress against the WHO roadmap.
Insights
Accurate global meningitis burden estimates are crucial for the World Health Organization (WHO) roadmap to defeat meningitis by 2030. Comparing major models reveals significant differences in mortality data, highlighting the need for improved data alignment.
Area of Science:
- Global Health
- Epidemiology
- Infectious Diseases
Background:
- The World Health Organization (WHO) has established a global roadmap to eliminate meningitis by 2030.
- Accurate estimation of meningitis burden is essential for tracking progress and advocating for interventions.
Purpose of the Study:
- To compare major global health models for estimating meningitis mortality.
- To identify discrepancies in meningitis burden estimates across different models.
Main Methods:
- Comparison of three major global health models for meningitis mortality estimation for the year 2015.
- Analysis of estimates for meningitis as a syndrome and by causative pathogen.
- Evaluation of differences in mortality estimates between models at global, national, and pathogen-specific levels.
Main Results:
- Two prominent models (WHO-MCEE and IHME GBD 2017) identified meningitis, encephalitis, and neonatal sepsis as leading infectious causes of death in children under five.
- Substantial discrepancies were observed between models in global mortality estimates for meningitis/encephalitis and neonatal sepsis.
- Marked differences were also found in national-level and pathogen-specific mortality estimates.
Conclusions:
- Current global health models show significant variability in estimating the burden of meningitis.
- Aligning modelled estimates with additional data sources, such as national surveillance, is recommended to improve accuracy.
- Enhanced data accuracy is vital for effective progress tracking and achieving the WHO's meningitis elimination goals.
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