Advancing the Population Needs-Based Health Workforce Planning Methodology: A Simulation Tool for Country Application

Area of Science:

• Health Services Research
• Health Economics
• Demography

Background:

• Needs-based health workforce planning concepts are established but lack empirical models and open tools.
• Existing planning methods may not adequately address long-term population health needs.

Purpose of the Study:

• To present an advanced empirical framework and open-access simulation tool for needs-based health workforce planning.
• To integrate supply and need analyses, including cost implications, for health workforce policy.
• To illustrate the framework's application using a case study in Ghana.

Main Methods:

• Developed a supply-side stock-and-flow model for health professionals.
• Extended analytical frameworks for the population health needs-based approach for the demand side.
• Integrated supply and need models to identify workforce gaps and cost implications.
• Conducted a simulation using midwives and obstetricians/gynaecologists in Ghana.
• Performed sensitivity analysis on health level assumptions.

Main Results:

• The framework quantifies health professional supply and need, identifying gaps and cost implications.
• A simulation in Ghana demonstrated the model's applicability for maternal and new-born care workforce planning.
• Sensitivity analysis indicated potential underestimation of long-term needs if health levels are assumed constant.
• The study emphasizes adjusting health workforce supply based on evolving population health needs.

Conclusions:

• Adopting a needs-based approach is crucial for effective health workforce planning towards universal health coverage.
• Health workforce supply strategies must dynamically align with changing population health needs.
• The provided open-access tool can facilitate practical health workforce planning in various countries.