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Related Experiment Videos

Outcome bias in decision evaluation.

J Baron1, J C Hershey

  • 1Psychology Department, University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia 19104-6916.

Journal of Personality and Social Psychology
|April 1, 1988
PubMed
Summary
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People often judge decisions based on their outcomes, not just the decision-making process. This study shows that favorable results bias evaluations of decision quality and competence.

Area of Science:

  • Cognitive Psychology
  • Decision Science
  • Behavioral Economics

Background:

  • Decision-making quality is often evaluated retrospectively.
  • Outcome knowledge can influence judgment, despite intentions to remain objective.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To investigate how outcome knowledge affects the evaluation of past decisions.
  • To examine the impact of favorable versus unfavorable outcomes on perceived decision quality and decision-maker competence.

Main Methods:

  • Undergraduate subjects reviewed hypothetical decisions (medical, financial) with known outcomes.
  • Participants rated decision quality, decision-maker competence, and willingness to delegate.

Main Results:

  • Decisions with favorable outcomes were rated higher in quality and competence.

Related Experiment Videos

  • Poor outcomes of forgone options in gambles also improved evaluations of the chosen option.
  • Evaluations were biased by outcomes, contrary to subjects' stated beliefs.

    • Conclusions:

    • Outcome knowledge significantly influences retrospective evaluations of decision-making.
    • This bias may stem from outcome salience affecting the perceived strength of arguments.
    • Findings have implications for understanding rationality and real-world judgments.