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Published on: July 27, 2018
Stay-at-home policy is a case of exception fallacy: an internet-based ecological study
R F Savaris1,2,3, G Pumi4, J Dalzochio5
1School of Medicine, Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul, Rua Ramiro Barcelos 2400, Porto Alegre, RS, CEP 90035-003, Brazil. rsavaris@hcpa.edu.br.
Staying at home did not significantly reduce COVID-19 mortality in most global regions studied. This ecological analysis found minimal association between reduced mobility and decreased deaths from the virus.
Area of Science:
- Epidemiology
- Public Health
- Mathematical Modeling
Background:
- Mathematical models suggested limited impact of staying home on COVID-19 transmission.
- Resurgence of COVID-19 cases in Europe raised concerns about control measures.
- Previous findings indicated potential overestimation of the role of staying at home.
Purpose of the Study:
- To investigate the association between the percentage of people staying at home and COVID-19 mortality.
- To analyze the reduction or increase in COVID-19 deaths in relation to mobility data.
- To assess the effectiveness of 'stay at home' policies on mortality rates globally.
Main Methods:
- Ecological study design utilizing data from Google COVID-19 Mobility, Our World in Data, and Brazilian Ministry of Health.
- Inclusion criteria: countries with >100 deaths and Healthcare Access and Quality Index ≥67.
- Analysis involved linear regression comparing differences in deaths/million and staying at home percentages across 87 global regions.
Main Results:
- 3741 pairwise comparisons were analyzed between epidemiological weeks 9 and 34.
- Only 63 comparisons (1.6%) showed a statistically significant association.
- The study could not establish a clear link between staying at home and reduced COVID-19 mortality in the majority of comparisons.
Conclusions:
- The 'stay at home' measure showed a negligible impact on reducing COVID-19 mortality across most analyzed regions.
- Findings challenge the dominant role of staying at home policies in controlling pandemic mortality.
- Further research is needed to understand the complex factors influencing COVID-19 mortality rates.
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