Source influence on emission pathways and ambient PM2.5 pollution over India (2015-2050)
Chandra Venkataraman1,2, Michael Brauer3, Kushal Tibrewal2
1Department of Chemical Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Bombay, Powai, Mumbai, India.
Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
|March 8, 2021
Summary
India faces widespread fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution, primarily from human activities like biomass burning and coal combustion. Aggressive policy changes are needed to significantly reduce PM2.5 levels by 2050.
Area of Science:
- Environmental Science
- Atmospheric Chemistry
- Public Health
Background:
- India experiences severe air quality degradation, posing challenges for future economic development and public health.
- Fine particulate matter (PM2.5) pollution is a pervasive issue across India, extending beyond urban centers.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate future PM2.5 concentrations and population exposure in India under various technological and policy scenarios.
- To identify key anthropogenic sources contributing to PM2.5 pollution and assess mitigation strategies.
Main Methods:
- Developed sectoral emission scenarios for PM2.5 and precursors from 2015-2050.
- Utilized the GEOS-Chem model for spatially and temporally resolved PM2.5 simulations.
- Aggregated results using population-weighted methods to national and state levels.
Main Results:
- Present-day PM2.5 levels in most Indian states exceed the national annual standard.
- Anthropogenic sources, particularly residential biomass combustion, coal power plants, industrial coal, and waste burning, are major contributors.
- Future air quality deteriorates under current regulations, but ambitious policies can achieve significant PM2.5 reductions.
Conclusions:
- Effective PM2.5 mitigation requires a shift away from traditional biomass, industrial coal, and agricultural residue burning.
- Even with aggressive mitigation, projected 2050 PM2.5 exposure remains significantly above WHO guidelines.
- Industrial process emissions are projected to dominate future air pollution due to expanding industrial energy demand.
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