Novel Criteria for When and How to Exit a COVID-19 Pandemic Lockdown

In the first month of 2020, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), a novel coronavirus spreading quickly via human-to-human transmission, caused the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Italy installed a successful nationwide lockdown to mitigate the exponential increase of case numbers, as the basic reproduction number R0 reached 1 within 4 weeks. But is R0 really the relevant criterion as to whether or not community spreading is under control? In most parts of the world, testing largely focused on symptomatic cases, and we thus hypothesized that the true number of infected cases and relative testing capacity are better determinants to guide lockdown exit strategies. We employed the SEIR model to estimate the numbers of undocumented cases. As expected, the estimated numbers of all cases largely exceeded the reported ones in all Italian regions. Next, we used the numbers of reported and estimated cases per million of population and compared it with the respective numbers of tests. In Lombardy, as the most affected region, testing capacity per reported new case seemed between two and eight most of the time, but testing capacity per estimated new cases never reached four up to April 30. In contrast, Veneto's testing capacity per reported and estimated new cases were much less discrepant and were between four and 16 most of the time. As per April 30 also Marche, Lazio and other Italian regions arrived close to 16 ratio of test capacity per new estimated infection. Thus, the criterion to exit a lockdown should be decided at the level of the regions, based on the local testing capacity that should reach 16 times the estimated true number of newly infected cases as predicted.