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What Can We Learn about Aging and COVID-19 by Studying Mortality?
L A Gavrilov1,2, N S Gavrilova3,2
1Academic Research Centers, NORC at the University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637, USA. gavrilov@longevity-science.org.
Aging research challenges traditional evolutionary theories. New models suggest multistage organismal destruction, with COVID-19
Area of Science:
- Gerontology and evolutionary biology.
- Biostatistics and epidemiology.
Background:
- Traditional evolutionary theories of aging, based on decreasing natural selection with age, face challenges.
- Analysis of age-related mortality kinetics provides new insights into the biology of aging.
Purpose of the Study:
- To discuss promising research directions in aging biology.
- To re-evaluate the consistency of evolutionary aging theories with mortality data.
- To propose and discuss a multistage destruction hypothesis for aging.
Main Methods:
- Analysis of age-related mortality kinetics in organisms.
- Comparative analysis of mortality data, including historical epidemics and COVID-19.
- Theoretical modeling of aging processes.
Main Results:
- Age-related mortality kinetics data are inconsistent with traditional evolutionary aging theories.
- A hypothesis of multistage organismal destruction, involving a "non-survivor" vulnerability stage, is proposed.
- COVID-19's impact on mortality in individuals over 65 is multiplicative, unlike the additive effect of the 1918 Spanish flu.
Conclusions:
- Further research into aging biology is warranted, moving beyond traditional evolutionary explanations.
- The multistage destruction hypothesis offers a new framework for understanding aging.
- The distinct multiplicative effect of COVID-19 highlights age-specific mortality dynamics.
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