Patterns and risk factors of opioid-suspected EMS overdose in Houston metropolitan area, 2015-2019: A Bayesian...

Opioid-related overdose deaths are the top accidental cause of death in the United States, and development of regional strategies to address this epidemic should begin with a better understanding of where and when overdoses are occurring.

In this study, we relied on emergency medical services data to investigate the geographical and temporal patterns in opioid-suspected overdose incidents in one of the largest and most ethnically diverse metropolitan areas (Houston Texas). Using a cross sectional design and Bayesian spatiotemporal models, we identified zip code areas with excessive opioid-suspected incidents, and assessed how the incidence risks were associated with zip code level socioeconomic characteristics. Our analysis suggested that opioid-suspected overdose incidents were particularly high in multiple zip codes, primarily south and central within the city. Zip codes with high percentage of renters had higher overdose relative risk (RR = 1.03; 95% CI: [1.01, 1.04]), while crowded housing and larger proportion of white citizens had lower relative risks (RR = 0.9; 95% CI: [0.84, 0.96], RR = 0.97, 95% CI: [0.95, 0.99], respectively).

Our analysis illustrated the utility of Bayesian spatiotemporal models in assisting the development of targeted community strategies for local prevention and harm reduction efforts.