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High pretreatment static and dynamic alpha-fetoprotein values predict reduced overall survival in hepatocellular
Carolin Czauderna1,2, Irene Schmidtmann3,4, Sandra Koch1
1Department of Internal Medicine I, Johannes Gutenberg University, Mainz, Germany.
Background:
Hepatocellular carcinoma is one of the most lethal cancers worldwide. Novel prognostic and/or predictive biomarkers are urgently needed to improve patient management. Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) is a well-established and widely used biomarker for hepatocellular carcinoma. However, diagnostic accuracy of static AFP values is limited and the clinical potential is a matter of ongoing scientific discussion.
Objective:
We here evaluated the prognostic impact of pretreatment static and dynamic AFP variables on overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients in a Western cohort.
Methods:
Patients with confirmed hepatocellular carcinoma (n = 809) treated at the Johannes Gutenberg University Mainz between 1998 and 2014 and two available pretreatment AFP-values (AFP-slope) were retrospectively analysed. Clinicopathological baseline parameters, pretreatment static values and AFP-slope were assessed. Prognostic impact was determined by Kaplan-Meier analyses and Cox regression models.
Results:
High static and dynamic AFP variables prior to therapy were associated with reduced survival rates of hepatocellular carcinoma patients. Several known clinical parameters such as Child-Pugh B (p < 0.01) and C stage (p < 0.001), portal vein thrombosis (p < 0.001) and extrahepatic spread (p < 0.001) were confirmed as independent predictors for overall survival. Addition of static and/or dynamic AFP variable resulted in higher time-dependent area under the curves. Notably, in patients with more favourable prognosis, AFP-slope prior to therapy was a slightly stronger predictor for overall survival compared with static AFP values.
Conclusion:
Static and dynamic AFP variables prior to therapy are predictive for overall survival of hepatocellular carcinoma patients. Addition of AFP-slope to established prognostic parameters might improve prognostic classification for a subgroup of hepatocellular carcinoma patients with preserved liver function and without portal vein tumour thrombosis.
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