Nest microclimate and limits to egg viability explain avian life-history variation across latitudinal gradients

Variation in life-history strategies is central to our understanding of population dynamics and how organisms adapt to their environments. Yet we lack consensus regarding the ecological processes that drive variation in traits related to reproduction and survival. For example, we still do not understand the cause of two widespread inter- and intraspecific patterns: (1) the ubiquitous positive association between avian clutch size and latitude; and (2) variation in the extent of asynchronous hatching of eggs within a single clutch. Well-known hypotheses to explain each pattern have largely focused on biotic processes related to food availability and predation risk. However, local adaptation to maintain egg viability could explain both patterns with a single abiotic mechanism. The egg viability hypothesis was initially proposed to explain the cause of asynchronous hatching and suggests that asynchronous hatching results from early incubation onset in response to unfavorable nest microclimatic conditions, which otherwise reduce egg viability. However, allocation of resources to early incubation, prior to clutch completion, may energetically constrain clutch size and help explain the positive association between clutch size and latitude. We measured intraspecific variation in five functionally linked life-history traits of burrowing owls at five study sites spanning a 1,400-km latitudinal transect in western North America: clutch size, the timing of incubation onset, the degree of hatching asynchrony, the probability of hatching failure, and nestling survival. We found that most traits varied clinally with latitude, but all the traits were more strongly associated with individual nest microclimates than with latitude, and all varied with nest microclimate in the directions predicted by the egg viability hypothesis. Furthermore, incubation began earlier, hatching asynchrony increased, and clutch size declined across the breeding season. These results suggest that nest microclimate drives an important life-history trade-off and that thermal gradients are often sufficient to account for observed biogeographic and seasonal patterns in life-history strategies. Furthermore, our results reveal a potentially important indirect mechanism by which reproductive success and recruitment could be affected by climate change.