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Impact of equatorial Atlantic variability on ENSO predictive skill
Eleftheria Exarchou1, Pablo Ortega2, Belén Rodríguez-Fonseca3,4
1Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC), Barcelona, Spain. eleftheria.exarchou@gmail.com.
Nature Communications
|March 13, 2021
Summary
Improving climate models to better represent the Atlantic Niños/Niñas can enhance predictions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). This boosts seasonal forecasting skill for ENSO and its global climate impacts.
Area of Science:
- Climate Science
- Oceanography
- Meteorology
Background:
- The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a major driver of global climate variability.
- Interactions between tropical oceans, such as the Atlantic and Pacific, influence ENSO dynamics.
- The teleconnection between summer Atlantic Niños/Niñas and subsequent winter ENSO is observed but poorly understood in climate models.
Purpose of the Study:
- To assess how well climate models capture the Atlantic-Pacific teleconnection.
- To determine the impact of improved equatorial Atlantic variability representation on ENSO prediction.
- To enhance the seasonal predictive skill of ENSO.
Main Methods:
- Utilized an ensemble of seasonal forecast systems.
- Conducted a sensitivity study by correcting sea surface temperature (SST) variability in the equatorial Atlantic.
- Analyzed forecast skill improvements in the Tropical Pacific.
Main Results:
- A better representation of equatorial Atlantic variability enhances autumn/winter ENSO prediction.
- Correcting SST variability in the equatorial Atlantic improves Tropical Pacific forecast skill.
- The lagged teleconnection mechanism is crucial for boosting ENSO predictive capacity.
Conclusions:
- Improving the simulation of equatorial Atlantic variability is key to enhancing ENSO forecasts.
- Addressing systematic model biases in the equatorial Atlantic can improve climate predictions globally.
- Enhanced understanding of ocean-atmosphere interactions is vital for climate predictability.
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