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A risk algorithm that predicts alcohol use disorders among college students.

C Benjet1, P Mortier2,3,4, G Kiekens5,6

  • 1Department of Epidemiology and Psychosocial Research, National Institute of Psychiatry Instituto Nacional de Psiquiatría Ramón de La Fuente Muñiz, Calzada México-Xochimilco 101, San Lornenzo Huipulco, CDMX, 14370, Mexico City, Mexico. cbenjet@imp.edu.mx.

European Child & Adolescent Psychiatry
|March 16, 2021
PubMed
Summary

First-year college students face a high risk of developing alcohol use disorders (AUD). Identifying at-risk students through screening can help prevent AUD and promote healthier drinking habits.

Keywords:
Alcohol use disorderHazardous drinkingIncidenceRisk algorithmUniversity students

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Area of Science:

  • Public Health
  • Addiction Medicine
  • Psychiatry

Background:

  • The transition to college is a critical period for the onset of alcohol use disorders (AUD).
  • Understanding the incidence and predictors of AUD in first-year students is crucial for developing effective interventions.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the one-year incidence of AUD among first-year college students.
  • To identify baseline predictors of AUD incidence.
  • To evaluate the accuracy and population impact of AUD risk prediction.

Main Methods:

  • A prospective cohort study of 5843 first-year college students at a Belgian university.
  • AUD was assessed using the AUDIT, and baseline predictors were evaluated with the Composite International Diagnostic Interview Screening Scales (CIDI-SC).
  • One-year follow-up data was collected from 1959 students.

Main Results:

  • The one-year incidence of AUD was 3.9%.
  • Key predictors included male gender, relationship break-ups, hazardous drinking, and baseline alcohol use characteristics.
  • Multivariate prediction models demonstrated high accuracy (AUC=0.887), identifying a high-risk subgroup (10% of students) accounting for 55.5% of incident AUD cases.

Conclusions:

  • Screening college entrants can identify students at risk for AUD.
  • Targeted preventive interventions, addressing hazardous drinking and stressful life events, could significantly reduce AUD incidence.
  • Early identification and intervention are vital for mitigating AUD among college students.