[Correlation between early inflammation indicators and the severity of coronavirus disease 2019]

To explore the correlation between early inflammation indicators and the severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19).

A retrospective study was conducted. Patients with COVID-19 admitted to Wenzhou Central Hospital from January 17 to February 14, 2020 were enrolled. The general information, chest CT before admission, the first laboratory parameters and chest CT within 24 hours after admission were collected. Patients were followed up for 30 days after the first onset of dyspnea or pulmonary imaging showed that the lesions progressed more than 50% within 24 to 48 hours (according to the criteria for severe cases) as the study endpoint. According to the endpoint, the patients were divided into two groups: mild type/common type group and severe/critical group, and the differences in general information and inflammation index of the two groups were compared. Logistic regression was used to analyze the inflammation index and the severity of COVID-19. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was draw to evaluate the predictive value of early inflammation indicators for severe/critical in patients with COVID-19.

A total of 140 patients with COVID-19 were included, 74 males and 66 females; the average age was (45±14) years old; 6 cases (4.3%) of mild type, 107 cases (76.4%) of common type, and 22 cases (15.7%) of severe type, 5 cases (3.6%) were critical. There were significantly differences in ages (years old: 43±13 vs. 57±13), the proportion of patients with one chronic disease (17.7% vs. 55.6%), C-reactive protein [CRP (mg/L): 7.3 (2.3, 21.0) vs. 40.1 (18.8, 62.6)], lymphocyte count [LYM (×10⁹/L): 1.3 (1.0, 1.8) vs. 0.8 (0.7, 1.1)], the neutrophil/lymphocyte ratio [NLR: 2.1 (1.6, 3.0) vs. 3.1 (2.2, 8.8)] and multilobularinltration, hypo-lymphocytosis, bacterial coinfection, smoking history, hyper-tension and age [MuLBSTA score: 5.0 (3.0, 5.0) vs. 5.0 (5.0, 7.0)] between mild/common group and severe/critical group (all P < 0.05). Univariate Logistic regression analysis showed that CRP, NLR, MuLBSTA score, age, and whether chronic diseases were associated with the severity of COVID-19 [odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence interval (95%CI) were 1.037 (1.020-1.055), 1.374 (1.123-1.680), 1.574 (1.296-1.911), 1.082 (1.042-1.125), 6.393 (2.551-16.023), respectively, all P < 0.01]. Further multivariate Logistic regression analysis showed that CRP and MuLBSTA score were risk factors for the development of COVID-19 to severe/critical cases [OR and 95%CI were 1.024 (1.002-1.048) and 1.321 (1.027-1.699) respectively, both P < 0.05]. ROC curve analysis showed that the area under the curve for CRP and MuLBSTA score to predict severe/critical cases were both 0.818, and the best cut-off points were 27.4 mg/L and 6.0 points, respectively.

CRP and MuLBSTA score are related to the severity of COVID-19, and may have good independent predictive ability for the development of severe/critical illness.