Severity of hyperechoic pancreas on ultrasonography as a risk factor for glycemic progression

The aim of this study was to evaluate the association between the severity of hyperechoic pancreas (HP) on ultrasonography (US) and glycemic progression.

In total, 1,386 participants who underwent abdominal US as part of health examinations between December 2008 and May 2014 were included in this retrospective study. We classified pancreatic echogenicity on a 4-point scale, and compared it using two distinct criteria: fatty pancreas (FP) 1 criterion (normal vs. ≥mild HP) and FP2 criterion (normal/mild HP vs. ≥moderate HP). According to the presence of nonalcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD), participants were subdivided into four groups: non-NAFLD and non-HP, isolated NAFLD, isolated HP, and HP with NAFLD. Glycemic progression was defined as progression from normoglycemia to prediabetes or diabetes or progression from prediabetes to diabetes.

During the follow-up (median, 5.9 years), 262 of the 1,386 participants developed glycemic progression. Using FP2, the probability of glycemic progression across the four subgroups showed cumulative aggravation for NAFLD and HP (all P<0.05). Isolated HP showed a higher probability of glycemic progression than isolated NAFLD according to FP2 (P<0.001). The highest probability of glycemic progression was observed in patients with both NAFLD and HP (P<0.001). The hazard ratio for glycemic progression increased with the severity of HP.

Increasing severity of HP on US was found to be significantly correlated with glycemic progression. Moreover, isolated HP of moderate or greater severity predicted glycemic progression independent of NAFLD.