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Published on: November 10, 2023
Role of fluctuations in epidemic resurgence after a lockdown
1NiPS Lab, Dipartimento di Fisica e Geologia, Università degli studi di Perugia, 06010, Perugia, Italy.
Abstract:
Most popular statistical models in epidemic evolution focus on the dynamics of average relevant quantities and overlooks the role of small fluctuations on the model parameters. Models for Covid-19 are no exception. In this paper we show that the role of time-correlated fluctuations, far from being negligible, can in fact determine the spreading of an epidemic and, most importantly, the resurgence of the exponential diffusion in the presence of time-limited episodes in promiscuity behaviours. The results found in this work are not only relevant and specific for the Covid-19 epidemic but are more general and can be applied to other epidemics.
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