Vulnerability of bat-plant pollination interactions due to environmental change

Plant-pollinator interactions are highly relevant to society as many crops important for humans are animal pollinated. However, changes in climate and land use may put such interacting patterns at risk by disrupting the occurrences between pollinators and the plants they pollinate. Here, we analyse how the co-occurrence patterns between bat pollinators and 126 plant species they pollinate may be disrupted given changes in climate and land use, and we forecast relevant changes of the current bat-plant co-occurrence distribution patterns for the near future. We predict under RCP8.5 21% of the territory will experience a loss of bat species richness, plants with C3 metabolism are predicted to reduce their area of distribution by 6.5%, CAM species are predicted to increase their potential area of distribution up to 1% and phanerophytes are predicted to have a 14% reduction in their distribution. The potential bat-plant interactions are predicted to decrease from an average of 47.1 co-occurring bat-plant pairs in the present to 34.1 in the pessimistic scenario. The overall changes in suitable environmental conditions for bats and the plant species they pollinate may disrupt the current bat-plant co-occurrence network and will likely put at risk the pollination services bat species provide.