Can You Trust Who You See? The Evolution of Socially Cued Anticipatory Plasticity

AbstractThe social environment can affect development and fitness. However, we do not know how selection acts on individuals that cue developmental pathways using features of the social environment. Socially cued anticipatory plasticity (SCAP) is a hypothetical strategy whereby juveniles use social cues to alter development to match their adult phenotype to the social environment that they expect to encounter. While intuitively appealing, the evolution of such plasticity is a puzzle, because the cue changes when individuals use it. Can socially cued plasticity evolve when such a feedback occurs? We use individual-based simulations to model evolution of SCAP in an environment that fluctuates between favoring each of two discrete phenotypes. We found that socially cued plasticity evolved, but only when strong selection acted on survival rather than on fecundity differences between adult phenotypes. In this case, the social cue reliably predicted which phenotype would be favored on maturation. Surprisingly, costs to plasticity increased the range of conditions under which it was adaptive. In the absence of costs, evolution led to a state where SCAP individuals could not effectively respond to environmental changes. Costs to plasticity lowered the proportion of the population that used SCAP, which in turn increased the reliability of the social cue and allowed individuals that used socially cued plasticity to switch between the favored phenotypes more consistently. Our results suggest that the evolution of adaptive plasticity in response to social cues may represent a larger class of problems in which evolution is hard to predict because of feedbacks among critical processes.