Quantitative source apportionment of heavy metals in cultivated soil and associated model uncertainty

To estimate spatial distribution, source analysis and uncertainty of heavy metals (Pb, Cd, Cr, Hg, As, Cu, Zn, and Ni) based on geographic information system (GIS), positive matrix factorization model (PMF) and bootstrap (BS) using 382 soil samples collected from cultivated soils in Lanzhou. The mean contents of Cd, Hg, Cu, Zn and Ni were high as 1.7,1.7, 2.1, 1.5 and 1.3 times local background values, mean contents of Pb, Cr and As were lower than local background values. However, the mean contents of eight heavy metals were lower environmental quality risk control standard for soil contamination of agricultural soil. Proportions of four sources were identified: Cr was predominantly contributed by natural sources (29.14%), Cu, Zn and Ni was primarily from industrial sources (25.26%), Hg and As were mainly of agricultural sources (27.49%), Pb and Cd mainly came from traffic source and smelting-related activities (18.09%). Uncertainties analysis contained three aspects: bootstrap runs, factor contributions in the PMF solution, and coefficient of variation (CV) values. By combining the four pollution source factors with bootstrap runs, the accuracy of the four pollution source factors were reliable based on PMF model. The median values in the BS runs was considered the most true factor contribution, and the 5th-95th quartile interval represents the variability of each factor, Factor 4 (traffic source) R² was 0.70 and lower variability. The highest CV value usually means a significantly deviation degree. In this study, the CV values of Cr in Factor 1, Cu, Zn, and Ni in Factor 2, Hg, and As in Factor 3, Pb, and Cd in Factor 4 were lower, indicates a lower deviation degree. and with the lowest content among heavy metals usually was also with the greatest uncertainties. In this study improves understanding of the reduction of heavy metal pollution in cultivated soil, and also serves as reference for pollution source apportionment in other regions.