Whole-organism responses to constant temperatures do not predict responses to variable temperatures in the ecosystem...

Understanding and predicting responses of ectothermic animals to temperature are essential for decision-making and management. The thermal performance curve (TPC), which quantifies the thermal sensitivity of traits such as metabolism, growth and feeding rates in laboratory conditions, is often used to predict responses of wild populations. However, central assumptions of this approach are that TPCs are relatively static between populations and that curves measured under stable temperature conditions can predict performance under variable conditions. We test these assumptions using two latitudinally matched populations of the ecosystem engineer Mytilus trossulus that differ in their experienced temperature variability regime. We acclimated each population in a range of constant or fluctuating temperatures for six weeks and measured a series of both short term (feeding rate, byssal thread production) and long-term (growth, survival) metrics to test the hypothesis that performance in fluctuating temperatures can be predicted from constant temperatures. We find that this was not true for any metric, and that there were important interactions with the population of origin. Our results emphasize that responses to fluctuating conditions are still poorly understood and suggest caution must be taken in the use of TPCs generated under constant temperature conditions for the prediction of wild population responses.