Building contrast-enhanced CT-based models for preoperatively predicting malignant potential and Ki67 expression of...

To assess contrast-enhanced computed tomography (CE-CT) features for predicting malignant potential and Ki67 in small intestinal gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GISTs) and the correlation between them.

We retrospectively analyzed the pathological and imaging data for 123 patients (55 male/68 female, mean age: 57.2 years) with a histopathological diagnosis of small intestine GISTs who received CE-CT followed by curative surgery from May 2009 to August 2019. According to postoperatively pathological and immunohistochemical results, patients were categorized by malignant potential and the Ki67 index, respectively. CT features were analyzed to be associated with malignant potential or the Ki67 index using univariate analysis, logistic regression and receiver operating curve analysis. Then, we explored the correlation between the Ki67 index and malignant potential by using the Spearman rank correlation.

Based on univariate and multivariate analysis, a predictive model of malignant potential of small intestine GISTs, consisting of tumor size (p < 0.001) and presence of necrosis (p = 0.033), was developed with the area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) of 0.965 (95% CI, 0.915-0.990; p < 0.001), with 91.53% sensitivity, 96.87% specificity, 96.43% PPV, 92.54% NPV, 94.31% diagnostic accuracy. For high Ki67 expression, a model made up of tumor size (p = 0.051), presence of ulceration (p = 0.054) and metastasis (p = 0.001) may be the best predictive combination with an AUC of 0.785 (95% CI, 0.702-0.854; p < 0.001), 63.33% sensitivity, 76.34% specificity, 46.34% PPV, 86.59% NPV, 73.17% diagnostic accuracy. Ki67 index showed a moderate positive correlation with mitotic count (r = 0.578, p < 0.001), a weak positive correlation with tumor size (r = 0.339, p < 0.001) and with risk stratification (r = 0.364, p < 0.001).

Features on CE-CT could preoperatively predict malignant potential and high Ki67 expression of small intestine GISTs, and Ki67 index may be a promising prognostic factor in predicting the prognosis of small intestine GISTs, independent of the risk stratification system.