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Spatial-temporal characterization of rainfall in Pakistan during the past half-century (1961-2020)
Ghaffar Ali1, Muhammad Sajjad2,3, Shamsa Kanwal4
1College of Management, Shenzhen University, Nanhai Ave. 3688, Shenzhen, 518060, China. ghafar.gs@gmail.com.
Scientific Reports
|March 26, 2021
Summary
This study analyzed Pakistan
Area of Science:
- Hydrology and Climatology
- Environmental Science
- Agricultural Science
Background:
- Accurate spatial-temporal rainfall data is crucial for climate and hydrological modeling, agriculture, and water resource management.
- Pakistan's rainfall patterns require detailed assessment for effective planning and adaptation strategies.
- Understanding rainfall variability is essential for addressing water-related challenges in the region.
Purpose of the Study:
- To evaluate spatial-temporal rainfall trends and patterns in Pakistan from 1961 to 2020.
- To compare 27 interpolation techniques for optimal rainfall data characterization.
- To produce the first normal annual rainfall map of Pakistan using the best-performing method.
Main Methods:
- Systematic comparison of 27 geo-statistical and deterministic interpolation techniques.
- Selection of empirical Bayesian kriging regression prediction (EBKRP) as the optimal method.
- Generation of a normal annual rainfall map of Pakistan using EBKRP.
Main Results:
- Highest rainfall recorded in Malam Jaba (~1700 mm) and lowest in Nok-kundi (~50 mm).
- A south-to-north increase in rainfall was observed, with an average of 455 mm.
- Statistically significant downward rainfall trends were found in Sindh province, with downward inter-decadal shifts in Punjab and Sindh.
Conclusions:
- The study provides a comprehensive spatial-temporal rainfall assessment for Pakistan.
- The developed rainfall map and trend analysis offer valuable insights for environmental planning and water resource management.
- The findings have implications for climate modeling, agriculture, and hydrological studies in Pakistan.
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