Estimating Joint External Evaluation Scores Using Country Data from 77 Countries, 2016-2018.

Area of Science:

• Global Health Security
• International Health Regulations (IHR)
• Public Health Preparedness

Background:

• Joint External Evaluations (JEEs) are crucial for assessing national health security capacities since 2016.
• JEEs are part of the International Health Regulations (IHR) Monitoring and Evaluation Framework.
• Unlike mandatory self-assessments, JEEs offer a rigorous, collaborative evaluation of IHR implementation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To estimate global International Health Regulations (IHR) implementation using a predictive model.
• To identify factors influencing a country's health security preparedness.
• To assess the global distribution of health security capacities.

Main Methods:

• A multiple linear regression model was developed using publicly available JEE data.
• Data from 78 States Parties' JEE reports were analyzed.
• Sociodemographic, economic, and health indicators from global databases were incorporated for 194 WHO Member States.

Main Results:

• The final model identified four key predictors of JEE scores: IHR annual reporting, communicable disease burden (lost disability-adjusted life years), gross domestic product, and health professional density (adjusted R² = 0.833).
• An estimated 9.7% of countries (19 out of 194) demonstrated average or sustainable capacity across JEE technical areas.
• All countries achieving these scores were classified as high-income and ranked very high on the Human Development Index.

Conclusions:

• Global health security capacity is unevenly distributed, with significant disparities.
• High-income countries disproportionately possess demonstrated health security capacities.
• Targeted resource allocation and support are essential for advancing global health security, particularly in low- and middle-income nations.