What are the COVID-19 models modeling (philosophically speaking)?

Area of Science:

• Philosophy of Science
• Epidemiology
• Mathematical Modeling

Background:

• The COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the critical role of epidemic models in public health.
• These models generate significant scientific and philosophical questions regarding their interpretation and application.

Purpose of the Study:

• To explore key philosophical questions surrounding COVID-19 epidemic models.
• To analyze the nature of predictions made by these models.
• To investigate whether epidemic models function as causal models.
• To differentiate various epidemic models based on their representational frameworks.

Main Methods:

• Conceptual analysis of COVID-19 epidemic models.
• Philosophical inquiry into prediction, causality, and representation in scientific modeling.

Main Results:

• Preliminary exploration of the types of predictions generated by epidemic models.
• Discussion on the causal status of epidemic models.
• Identification of differences in what various epidemic models represent.

Conclusions:

• COVID-19 epidemic models present complex challenges for scientific and philosophical understanding.
• Further investigation is needed to fully address the nature of prediction, causality, and representation in epidemic modeling.