Risk factors to discriminate neoplastic polypoid lesions of gallbladder: A large-scale case-series study

Polypoid lesion of gallbladder (PLG) size larger than 10 mm is considered to be one of the surgical indications, but the final pathological results are mostly non-neoplastic polyps. The aim of the study was to define the risk factors to discriminate neoplastic PLG and create more precise criteria for surgical indications.

A large scale, case-series study based on 2704 patients who underwent cholecystectomy for PLG was designed. Logistic regression analysis and receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC) was adopted to identify risk factors and the optimal size criteria for predicting neoplastic PLG.

Patients in the neoplastic group were significantly older than those in the non-neoplastic group and the average PLG size is much larger in the neoplastic group (18.5 ± 4.7 mm vs 12.6 ± 3.6 mm). Neoplastic PLGs are prone to be single and non-neoplastic polyps are usually multiple. On Multivariate logistic regression analysis, PLG size larger than 15 mm and age older than 43 years were found to be the independent risk factors to discriminate neoplastic PLG （Odds ratio 3.546 and 2.77 respectively）. The ROC curve showed that 12 mm might be the more reasonable PLG size threshold for the surgical suggestion.

Considering its moderate diagnostic accuracy, the size of gallbladder polyp larger than 10 mm is insufficient to indicate surgical therapy for PLG and 12 mm should be the more optimal polyp's size threshold. Patients older than 43 years have a higher risk of having neoplastic polyps.