Risk factors and nomogram for predicting carotid blowout syndrome based on computed tomography angiography

To identify independent factors for head and neck cancer (HNC) patients with carotid blowout syndrome (CBS) and construct a nomogram to predict risk of CBS preoperatively based on computed tomography angiography (CTA) imaging.

From January 2010 to July 2020, 73 HNC patients who had surgery in hospitalization and underwent CTA examination for head and neck region were included in this study. Vascular alterations and the relationship between carotid artery (CA) and tumor were evaluated in CTA. Clinical and CTA imaging features were distinguished by logistic regression analysis and used to perform receiver operating curve analysis. Nomogram was created to predict risk of CBS and assessed by concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve.

Three independent risk factors were identified, including radical neck dissection, CA surrounded by tumor, and CA invaded by tumor without clear boundary. Area under curve of the combination of 3 variables was 0.836 (95% CI, 0.72-0.952, p < 0.001). The C-index of nomogram was 0.84 (95% CI, 0.73-0.94), and the calibration plot showed a good fitting between prediction and observation.

We established a useful nomogram based on CTA imaging, which showed a satisfied efficacy for evaluating risk of CBS in HNC patients preoperatively.