Modeling and Forecasting Foreign Trade Values in Medical Devices.

Area of Science:

• Medical device market analysis
• International trade forecasting

Background:

• Accurate forecasting of medical device trade is crucial for effective market regulation.
• Policymakers require reliable data to implement appropriate market instruments.

Purpose of the Study:

• To forecast Turkey's medical device export and import values for the next five years.
• To provide guidance for policymakers in regulating the medical device market.

Main Methods:

• Identification of universal HS-6 commodity codes for medical devices.
• Utilizing foreign trade data from the ITC Trademap database.
• Application of the Box-Jenkins autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model for forecasting.

Main Results:

• Turkey experienced a 14% decrease in medical device imports and a 21% increase in exports over the past five years.
• Asia is the primary export market (42.8%), while Europe represents the largest importer region.
• Projected import values to reach $1.78 billion and export values to reach $720 million by 2023.

Conclusions:

• Turkey's medical device market is poised for growth, presenting investment opportunities.
• The forecasting methodology employed can be adapted for use in other countries' markets.