Hydro-epidemiological modelling of bacterial transport and decay in nearshore coastal waters

In recent years, society has become more aware and concerned with the environmental and human health impacts of population growth and urbanisation. In response, a number of legislative measures have been introduced within Europe (and globally), which have sparked much cross-disciplinary research aimed at predicting and quantifying these impacts, and suggesting mitigation measures. In response to such measures this paper is focused on improving current understanding of, and simulating water quality, in the form of bacterial transport and decay, in the aquatic environment and particularly in macro-tidal environments. A number of 2D and 3D hydro-epidemiological models were developed using the TELEMAC suite to predict faecal bacterial levels for a data rich pilot site, namely Swansea Bay, located in the south west of the UK, where more than 7,000 FIO samples were taken and analysed over a two year period. A comparison of 2D and 3D modelling approaches highlights the importance of accurately representing source momentum terms in hydro-epidemiological models. Improvements in 2D model bacterial concentration predictions were achieved by the application of a novel method for representing beach sources within the nearshore zone of a macro-tidal environment. In addition, the use of a depth-varying decay rate was found to enhance the prediction of Faecal Indicator Organism concentrations in 3D models. Recommendations are made for the use of these novel approaches in future modelling studies.