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Related Experiment Video

Updated: Nov 11, 2025

A Method for Studying the Temperature Dependence of Dynamic Fracture and Fragmentation

A Method for Studying the Temperature Dependence of Dynamic Fracture and Fragmentation

Published on: June 28, 2015

Uncertainty quantification of dynamic earthquake rupture simulations.

Eric G Daub¹, Hamid Arabnejad², Imran Mahmood²

¹Research Engineering Group, Alan Turing Institute, London, UK.

Philosophical Transactions. Series A, Mathematical, Physical, and Engineering Sciences

|March 29, 2021

Summary

This study demonstrates an uncertainty quantification (UQ) method for earthquake rupture simulations. The approach effectively reduces the input parameter space, aiding in Earth stress tensor constraints from seismic data.

Keywords:

earthquake mechanics model calibration simulation management uncertainty quantification

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Last Updated: Nov 11, 2025

A Method for Studying the Temperature Dependence of Dynamic Fracture and Fragmentation

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Published on: June 28, 2015

Kinematic History of a Salient-recess Junction Explored through a Combined Approach of Field Data and Analog Sandbox Modeling

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Published on: July 5, 2016

Area of Science:

Computational geophysics
Seismology
Uncertainty quantification

Background:

Dynamic earthquake rupture simulations are computationally intensive.
Understanding earthquake behavior requires quantifying uncertainties in model parameters.
Existing methods for uncertainty quantification (UQ) can be complex for domain experts.

Purpose of the Study:

To present a tutorial on a surrogate-model based UQ approach for dynamic earthquake rupture.
To demonstrate how UQ can streamline model calibration and input space analysis.
To provide a template for researchers to apply UQ methods to complex problems without deep expertise.

Main Methods:

Utilized a surrogate-model based UQ approach for dynamic earthquake rupture.
Employed the mogp_emulator package for model calibration.
Leveraged FabSim3 from the VECMA toolkit for workflow management and reproducible simulations.

Main Results:

The UQ approach successfully performed model calibration and validation.
The method effectively ruled out significant portions of the input parameter space.
Demonstrated the ability to constrain earthquake rupture dynamics using observational data.

Conclusions:

The presented UQ approach is effective for studying dynamic earthquake rupture.
This methodology can lead to improved constraints on the Earth's stress tensor.
The tutorial facilitates broader adoption of UQ in computational seismology.