Variations in Demand across England for the Magnetic Resonance-Linac Technology, Simulated Utilising Local-level...

Area of Science:

• Oncology
• Radiotherapy
• Health Services Research

Background:

• Cancer incidence and treatment demand differ regionally across England.
• The magnetic resonance-linac (MR-linac) is an advanced radiotherapy technology integrating imaging and treatment delivery.
• Accurate demand forecasting is essential for effective healthcare resource allocation.

Purpose of the Study:

• To model the demand for MR-linac services across England at a local level.
• To quantify variations in MR-linac demand based on cancer incidence and population data.
• To assess the impact of using national versus local data for MR-linac service planning.

Main Methods:

• Utilized the Malthus radiotherapy model, incorporating Clinical Commissioning Group (CCG) population and cancer data.
• Simulated MR-linac demand for all CCGs and Radiotherapy Operational Delivery Networks (RODNs) in England.
• Incorporated initial clinical indications from the MR-linac consortium into decision trees.

Main Results:

• MR-linac could potentially service 16% of England's total radiotherapy fraction burden.
• Simulated annual demand varied from 3000 to 10,600 fractions/million population at the CCG level.
• Using national averages for demand prediction led to significant over- or underestimations at the RODN level (up to 8400 fractions).

Conclusions:

• Regional variations in cancer burden necessitate local-level data for planning new cancer technologies like the MR-linac.
• Failure to account for local demand variations can lead to substantial inaccuracies in service planning.
• Accurate, localized demand modeling is critical for optimizing radiotherapy resource allocation and patient access.