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No warning for slow transitions.

Bregje van der Bolt1, Egbert H van Nes1, Marten Scheffer1

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Summary
This summary is machine-generated.

Dynamical indicators of resilience (DIORs) can signal critical transitions, but require long time series. Rapid anthropogenic forcing may hinder the detection of these early warning signals in climate and ecosystem resilience.

Keywords:
critical slowing downcritical transitionsdynamic indicators of resiliencerate of forcingregime shiftsresilience

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Area of Science:

  • Ecology and Climate Science
  • Complex Systems Dynamics

Background:

  • Critical transitions in dynamical systems can be preceded by a rise in fragility.
  • Dynamical Indicators of Resilience (DIORs) measure system recovery rates, acting as early warning signals for tipping points.
  • Accurate DIOR estimation requires sufficiently long observational time series to capture system response rates.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To systematically investigate the impact of system response rates and forcing rates on the detectability of DIOR trends before critical transitions.
  • To quantify the performance of resilience indicators (variance and temporal autocorrelation) under varying dynamical and forcing conditions.

Main Methods:

  • Simulations of dynamical systems with different response rates.
  • Application of varying rates of external forcing to these systems.
  • Analysis of the detectability of trends in variance and temporal autocorrelation as DIORs.

Main Results:

  • The required length of time series for reliable DIOR estimation is dependent on the system's response rate.
  • Rapid anthropogenic climate forcing can significantly impede the detection of resilience changes in climate and ecosystem elements.
  • Current observational time series may be too short to reliably detect resilience shifts due to fast forcing.

Conclusions:

  • The rapid pace of anthropogenic forcing poses a challenge for using DIORs to assess the resilience of Earth systems.
  • Future modeling studies must incorporate realistic time constants and key processes to accurately assess the utility of DIORs.
  • Further research is needed to refine methods for detecting early warning signals in rapidly changing environments.