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Modelling virus spreading in ride-pooling networks.

Rafał Kucharski1,2, Oded Cats3, Julian Sienkiewicz4

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Ride-pooling can spread COVID-19 rapidly, but fixed travel groups can prevent widespread outbreaks. This sustainable urban mobility solution can be made safer with simple interventions.

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Area of Science:

  • Epidemiology
  • Urban Mobility Studies
  • Public Health

Background:

  • Urban mobility relies on sustainable alternatives, with ride-pooling emerging as a key option.
  • The COVID-19 pandemic introduced public health concerns, questioning the safety of shared transportation.
  • The impact of ride-pooling on virus transmission within urban environments remains largely unquantified.

Purpose of the Study:

  • To assess the risk of virus transmission within ride-pooling systems during the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • To model the spread of infectious diseases among ride-pooling users.
  • To identify effective interventions for mitigating transmission risks in ride-pooling.

Main Methods:

  • Combined epidemiological and behavioral shareability models.
  • Applied models to ride-pooling scenarios in Amsterdam.
  • Simulated virus spread under various conditions and interventions.

Main Results:

  • Initial infections can rapidly spread to hundreds of users without intervention.
  • Ride-pooling systems can significantly contribute to virus dissemination.
  • A specific intervention (fixed travel groups) can drastically reduce infections from hundreds to dozens.

Conclusions:

  • Ride-pooling poses a substantial risk for virus transmission.
  • Implementing fixed travel groups is an effective strategy to control outbreaks.
  • This intervention maintains ride-pooling efficiency while enhancing safety for urban mobility.