Prediction of the tumor response and survival based on computed tomography in esophageal squamous cell carcinoma after trimodality therapy

Predicting the response to neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (NCRT) and the prognosis of esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) is challenging. This study evaluated the potential of a preoperative computed tomography (CT) analysis for predicting the pathological response and survival of patients with ESCC who received trimodality therapy.

A total of 119 patients with cT3 or T4 ESCC who underwent surgery following NCRT between 2007 and 2019 were assessed. The CT-based parameters were measured with enhanced CT preoperatively, prior to and during treatment. Associations between these parameters and the pathologic response, as well as the prognosis, were examined.

Pretreatment maximum CT value (p = 0.009), pretreatment mean CT value (p = 0.022), preoperative whole tumor volume (WTV, p = 0.003), preoperative largest cross section (LCS, p = 0.002), ΔLCS (pretreatment to preoperative, p = 0.004), ΔWTV (pretreatment to preoperative, p = 0.012), and Δmean CT value (pretreatment to preoperative, p = 0.012) of the primary lesion were significantly associated with a good pathological response. A Cox-regression analysis of recurrence-free survival (RFS) and overall survival (OS) showed that preoperative LCS was an independent CT-based predictor. RFS and OS were significantly higher at the optimal cut-off value of the preoperative LCS (p = 0.036 and p = 0.016, respectively).

CT-based parameters are thus considered to be valuable predictors of the tumor response and survival after trimodality therapy for ESCC.