Prediction of Lumbar Disc Bulging and Protrusion by Anthropometric Factors and Disc Morphology

The relationship between reduced disc height and disc bulging and/or protrusion has been controversial. The purposes of this study were to examine the relationship between disc morphology and disc bulging and protrusion and to establish a model for predicting disc bulging and protrusion. This is a retrospective study. A total of 452 MRI scans from a spine study were analysed, 210 (46.5%) were men. Logistic regression analysis was applied to identify the association between anthropometric factors, disc morphology factors, and outcome. Model 1 was constructed using anthropometric variables to investigate the capacity for predicting outcomes. Model 2 was constructed using anthropometric and disc morphology variables. Age, body weight, body height, disc height, and disc depth were significantly associated with outcome. The area under the curve (AUC) statistics of Model 2 were significantly better than those of Model 1 at the L3-L4 and L4-L5 levels but not at the L5-S1 level. The results showed an association between disc morphology and disc bulging and/or protrusion at the L3-L4, L4-L5, and L5-S1 levels. The model utilizing both anthropometric factors and disc morphology factors had a better capacity to predict disc bulging and/or protrusion compared with the model using only anthropometric factors.